Niqash.org
/ politics
tue 15 sep 09
al-maliki faces shia election threat
Nouri al-Maliki is facing his biggest political challenge to date as he seeks to cement a coalition for January’s parliamentary elections and retain his post as Prime Minister.
His bid to remain Iraqi premier has suffered a severe blow with the creation of a grand Shia alliance, the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), which excludes his Dawa party.
Although al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition triumphed in January’s provincial elections, observers say he faces a significant battle competing against the united Shia forces in the upcoming parliamentary elections. As a group the member parties of the INA enjoys vast national support.
The INA, which succeeds the long dominant United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) and includes the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), the Sadr Movement, the National Congress headed by Ahmad al-Chalabi and the National Reform Party headed by former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, intends to directly challenge al-Maliki.
While al-Maliki was originally invited to be part of the INA – his Dawa party was a leading member of the UIA - his insistence that he lead the coalition provoked a rupture.
According to Sami al-Askari, a close advisor to al-Maliki, the Prime Minister is now intent on mobilising his own list, the State of Law Coalition, to compete in the January elections. The new coalition will include independent Shia and Sunni politicians such as Mahmoud al-Mashhadani, former parliament speaker, as well as tribal forces.
In some ways al-Maliki’s break with the Shia alliance was widely expected.
When he first became Prime Minister in May 2006, he faced fierce competition from Adil Abdul-Mahdi, a leading figure from ISCI which was then a coalition partner. And over the last year al-Maliki’s centralizing drive has alienated many in the UIA.
“The conflict over the Prime Minister’s post between Shia parties is not a new one. Al-Maliki’s allies were the first to compete with him over the post because whoever occupies it becomes the master of the country and controls its decisions,” Wael Abdul Latif, an independent MP, told Niqash.
But according to Abdul Latif the coming battle for the premiership will be fiercer than ever.
In particular political analysts point to the threat posed by Abdul Mahdi who is the ISCI’s only candidate for the position if the INA triumphs in the election. However, other candidates, including al-Chalabi, al-Jaafari and former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, who heads the secular Iraqi National Accord, also harbour personal ambitions to become Prime Minister.
As the election draws closer, a secondary battle over the electoral system has already broken out, with al-Maliki seeking a change to an open list system and the INA pushing for a closed list system.
“The battle has already started. Its repercussions have reflected themselves on the conflict over the electoral system,” a source close to al-Maliki told Niqash.
A few days ago al-Maliki’s government approved a draft law that will pave the way for an open list system, allowing voters to vote for individual candidates and not only parties. Because al-Maliki’s coalition will include independent candidates, this system will strengthen his hand.
Ali al-Adeeb, an MP and a leading member of the Dawa Party, told Niqash that an open list system will benefit the State of Law coalition by allowing its various allies to “use their social base and influence” to secure victory.
Al-Maliki’s opponents however, including ISCI, are seeking to maintain the same electoral system applied in 2005, known as the closed list system which favours large parties.
Even as the Prime Minister has been attempting to deal with the threat of Shia rivals, local media reports suggest he is also facing internal competition within the Dawa party itself.
According to reports these rifts have been caused by al-Maliki’s alliance with some Sunni forces, as well as his reluctance to join the INA.
“We are not yet sure who will be the person selected for the [leadership] post,” commented al-Adeeb, while suggesting that al-Maliki would in all likelihood secure the position. “It is not a personal matter. It is about the actual and tangible achievements by Nouri al-Maliki on all levels which increase his chances of being reselected for the post.”
tue 15 sep 09
al-maliki faces shia election threat
Nouri al-Maliki is facing his biggest political challenge to date as he seeks to cement a coalition for January’s parliamentary elections and retain his post as Prime Minister.
His bid to remain Iraqi premier has suffered a severe blow with the creation of a grand Shia alliance, the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), which excludes his Dawa party.
Although al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition triumphed in January’s provincial elections, observers say he faces a significant battle competing against the united Shia forces in the upcoming parliamentary elections. As a group the member parties of the INA enjoys vast national support.
The INA, which succeeds the long dominant United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) and includes the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), the Sadr Movement, the National Congress headed by Ahmad al-Chalabi and the National Reform Party headed by former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, intends to directly challenge al-Maliki.
While al-Maliki was originally invited to be part of the INA – his Dawa party was a leading member of the UIA - his insistence that he lead the coalition provoked a rupture.
According to Sami al-Askari, a close advisor to al-Maliki, the Prime Minister is now intent on mobilising his own list, the State of Law Coalition, to compete in the January elections. The new coalition will include independent Shia and Sunni politicians such as Mahmoud al-Mashhadani, former parliament speaker, as well as tribal forces.
In some ways al-Maliki’s break with the Shia alliance was widely expected.
When he first became Prime Minister in May 2006, he faced fierce competition from Adil Abdul-Mahdi, a leading figure from ISCI which was then a coalition partner. And over the last year al-Maliki’s centralizing drive has alienated many in the UIA.
“The conflict over the Prime Minister’s post between Shia parties is not a new one. Al-Maliki’s allies were the first to compete with him over the post because whoever occupies it becomes the master of the country and controls its decisions,” Wael Abdul Latif, an independent MP, told Niqash.
But according to Abdul Latif the coming battle for the premiership will be fiercer than ever.
In particular political analysts point to the threat posed by Abdul Mahdi who is the ISCI’s only candidate for the position if the INA triumphs in the election. However, other candidates, including al-Chalabi, al-Jaafari and former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, who heads the secular Iraqi National Accord, also harbour personal ambitions to become Prime Minister.
As the election draws closer, a secondary battle over the electoral system has already broken out, with al-Maliki seeking a change to an open list system and the INA pushing for a closed list system.
“The battle has already started. Its repercussions have reflected themselves on the conflict over the electoral system,” a source close to al-Maliki told Niqash.
A few days ago al-Maliki’s government approved a draft law that will pave the way for an open list system, allowing voters to vote for individual candidates and not only parties. Because al-Maliki’s coalition will include independent candidates, this system will strengthen his hand.
Ali al-Adeeb, an MP and a leading member of the Dawa Party, told Niqash that an open list system will benefit the State of Law coalition by allowing its various allies to “use their social base and influence” to secure victory.
Al-Maliki’s opponents however, including ISCI, are seeking to maintain the same electoral system applied in 2005, known as the closed list system which favours large parties.
Even as the Prime Minister has been attempting to deal with the threat of Shia rivals, local media reports suggest he is also facing internal competition within the Dawa party itself.
According to reports these rifts have been caused by al-Maliki’s alliance with some Sunni forces, as well as his reluctance to join the INA.
“We are not yet sure who will be the person selected for the [leadership] post,” commented al-Adeeb, while suggesting that al-Maliki would in all likelihood secure the position. “It is not a personal matter. It is about the actual and tangible achievements by Nouri al-Maliki on all levels which increase his chances of being reselected for the post.”
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