Following Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s recent announcement that he will compete in upcoming parliamentary elections as head of the State of Law coalition, political manoeuvring for influence among the main coalitions is well under way.

The Prime Minister is moving to strengthen the coalition, quickly building bridges with new parties.

Less than a week after his declaration, al-Maliki has already gained the support of defectors from the Shia led Iraqi National Alliance (INA) , seen by many as the Prime Minister’s biggest challenge in January’s elections.

The defectors, from former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari’s Reform party in Diwaniyah province in southern Iraq, have created a rival Reform party in alliance with al-Maliki.

“We have parted company with the Reform party and joined al-Maliki, having found in his coalition the most favourable alliance in the political arena," Yaseen al-Saylawi, a leader of the new party, told Niqash.

Al-Maliki’s alliance is “the largest national group at present… and it will achieve remarkable results in the parliamentary elections as it did in [last January’s] provincial council elections,” said al-Saylawi. “Eventually it will defeat all the other sectarian blocs, not only the Iraqi National Alliance.”

Political observers say the defection will weaken the INA, which does not enjoy broad-based support. This despite al-Jaafari’s deputy in the Reform party, Faleh al-Fayyadh, telling Niqash that the breakaway group only amounts to a few “individuals.”

According to the country’s former Justice Minister and current member of the State of Law coalition, Malik Douhan al-Hasan, the coming days will see more parties moving towards an alliance with al-Maliki.

“Al-Maliki's chances of leading a large coalition at the upcoming elections are getting remarkably high, especially after his abandonment of sectarian tendencies and his adoption of a more acceptable way of running government affairs, which have attracted mainstream parties towards his alliance,” said al-Hasan. “Al-Maliki will be the man for the next stage.”

At a conference held October 1 to declare the candidacy of the State of Law coalition, al-Maliki described his grouping as “far removed from a sectarian-based distribution of power,” alluding to the Shia domination of the INA.

Among other groups forming an alliance with al-Maliki’s Dawa party are the Dawa Party - Iraq Group and the Independent Bloc, led by first deputy speaker of parliament, Khalid al-Attiya. These three parties are the largest parties within the State of Law coalition. Standing along them are a broad range of political figures, comprised of secular MPs, who have abandoned the Iyad Allawi led Iraqi bloc, other breakaway members of the Sunni Reconciliation Front, Shiite and Sunni former and present government ministers, in addition to two Christian groups, one Turkman group, and two Kurdish groups.

Al-Maliki has also concentrated on gaining the support of influential personalities within Sunni Arab circles, including the Awakening Councils and tribal chiefs like Sheikh Ali al-Hatim, the leader of the Iraq Banners alliance and a senior Anbar Salvation Council leader.

All in all, the coalition will include religious, liberal, Sunni and Shia parties declared, Abbas al-Bayati, an MP linked to the State of Law coalition, “contrary to the Iraqi National Alliance which still keeps its sectarian structure.”

To date, the INA has maintained a strong Shia domination even as it says it wants to represent cross-sectarian interests. It has only won over Sheikh Hameed Al-Hayes, a breakaway member of Anbar Salvation Council, who enjoys little popular support.

Observers now expect more political blocs and personalities to join the State of law coalition, further strengthening al-Maliki’s hand.

In this connection Niqash has learnt that Sheikh Thamir al-Tamimi, an advisor to the Awakening Councils in Iraq, has held discussions with Dawa party about joining the alliance. “We shall announce our joining of the State of law coalition in a few days when we reach a final agreement on certain fundamental points," al-Tamimi told Niqash. Other blocs including the Chief Sunni Endowment Office led by Sheikh Ahmad Abdul Ghafour have also indicated a similar disposition.

The Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), the leading party in the INA, appears to have been stunned by al-Maliki’s quick successes in building up his alliance. Nonetheless it has played down the importance of the Prime-Minister’s new link-ups.

“The emergence of two alliances is not an unexpected development,” commented Hadi al-Amiri, an MP from the ISCI-linked Badr organization, describing it as “a complementary part of the country's political process."

Speaking about the breakaway al-Jaafari supporters he said: “This happens in all democratic states, where entities and individuals are free to choose the group they desire to ally with."

Despite the failure of the INA to lure significant Sunni figures into its alliance al-Amiri says that the coalition has “not failed to attract Sunni personalities and we have declared our program and left the door open to all those who trust our agenda.”